Rate Lock Advisory

Wednesday, July 15th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory with stocks showing early gains. The major stock indexes are responding to encouraging vaccine trial results from late yesterday, pushing the Dow up 239 points and the Nasdaq up 58 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32 (0.63%), which should keep this morning’s mortgage rates close to yesterday’s early pricing.



30 yr - 0.63%







Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock



Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

The first of today’s two economic reports was June's Industrial Production data at 9:15 AM ET that showed output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities jumped 5.4% last month. This was stronger than the 4.5% increase that was expected, but not enough of a variance to cause alarm in the bond market. It shows that some manufacturing activity was strong than thought, making the data bad news for rates. Fortunately, this is only a moderately important release that did not have an actual impact on today’s mortgage pricing.



Fed Beige Book

The second release of the day will be the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report at 2:00 PM ET. This report is named simply after the color of its cover, but it is considered to be important to the Fed when determining monetary policy during their FOMC meetings. It details economic activity and conditions by Fed region throughout the U.S. If there are any significant changes in conditions since the last update, we could see an afternoon move in the markets and mortgage rates. Signs of lackluster growth would be favorable news for rates.



Retail Sales (consumer spending)

Tomorrow morning brings us two important pieces of economic data for the markets to digest. The first is June's Retail Sales report from the Commerce Department at 8:30 AM ET. It is expected to show that retail-level sales rose 5.0% last month as the economy continues to recover from the pandemic. Because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy and bonds are more attractive during weaker economic conditions, this data is watched very closely. Good news for mortgage rates would be a smaller than expected rise in sales.



Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

We will also get weekly unemployment figures early tomorrow morning. They are expected to show that 1.26 million new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, down from the previous week. A high number of new filings is considered to be a sign of employment sector weakness. Therefore, the higher the number of claims, the better the news it is for mortgage rates.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.